US Consumer Confidence Index Falls Short of Expectations, LME Zinc Jumps Initially and Then Pulls Back [SMM Morning Meeting Summary]

March 17 Zinc Morning Meeting Summary

Futures Market: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $2,956/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated around the daily average line, briefly dipping to $2,955/mt. During European trading hours, longs increased positions, pushing LME zinc to fluctuate upward and hit a high of $2,994.5/mt. Subsequently, profit-taking by longs brought LME zinc's center back near the daily average line, closing up at $2,985.5/mt, an increase of $27/mt or 0.91%. Trading volume decreased to 12,310 lots, while open interest increased by 5,729 lots to 223,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2505 contract opened at 24,215 yuan/mt. In early trading, shorts entered the market, pressuring SHFE zinc to move downward, with its center shifting near the daily average line. By the end of trading, the center further declined to a low of 24,075 yuan/mt before rebounding near the daily average line for consolidation, closing up at 24,140 yuan/mt, an increase of 10 yuan/mt or 0.04%. Trading volume decreased to 59,831 lots, while open interest increased by 3,747 lots to 120,000 lots.

Macro: In March, US consumer confidence plummeted, and inflation expectations surged. Trump and Putin are expected to hold talks this week. Trump ordered military action against the Houthi forces. Vance admitted Musk made "mistakes" in federal layoffs. The US is reportedly set to engage in bilateral negotiations with trading partners after imposing tariffs. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption." The Financial Regulatory Administration encouraged increased issuance of personal consumer loans. Two departments cracked down on illegal activities in the financial sector's "black and gray industries." The CSRC took action against "small essays" in the stock market. The Market Supervision Administration announced intensified random inspections of online products.

Spot Market:

Shanghai: In the early session, market quotations were at premiums of 0–20 yuan/mt against the average price, with fewer quotes against futures. During the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to premiums of 10 yuan/mt against the 2504 contract. Baiyin was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, Huize at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, and high-priced brand Shuangyan at a premium of 70 yuan/mt against the 2504 contract. Despite the continued rise in futures prices during the morning session, downstream inquiries and purchases remained moderate. Some traders lowered their spot quotations to facilitate sales, but overall transactions remained sluggish.

Guangdong: In the first session, suppliers quoted Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Feilong, and Lan zinc at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to flat. In the second session, Kirin, Mengzi, and Lan zinc were quoted at discounts of 30–10 yuan/mt against the online price. Overall, last Friday's zinc price increase led to downstream resistance to high prices, with most spot transactions occurring between traders. While some traders lowered premiums to facilitate sales, others maintained a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, showing low willingness to sell at discounts. Under high prices and weak transactions, spot premiums declined.

Tianjin: Tianjin's prices were around a discount of 10 yuan/mt compared to Shanghai. By midday, Xinzi was quoted at premiums of 10–30 yuan/mt against the 04 contract, Xikeng at discounts of 10–40 yuan/mt, Bailing at around a discount of 40 yuan/mt, and high-priced brand Zijin at premiums of 20–50 yuan/mt. Last Friday, futures prices continued to rebound, but downstream resistance to high prices remained strong. There was limited just-in-time procurement, with most downstream buyers staying on the sidelines, and major factories focusing on fulfilling long-term contracts. Although traders actively sold, market buying sentiment was weak, leading to lower premiums and poor overall transactions.

Ningbo: Compared to Shanghai spot prices, Ningbo quoted a premium of 30 yuan/mt. In the first session, Yongchang quoted a premium of 10 yuan/mt against the 2504 contract, Kirin at premiums of 0–20 yuan/mt, and Honglu-V at a premium of 10 yuan/mt. In the second session, traders' quotations remained unchanged from the first session. With futures prices remaining high, market traders adopted a passive approach to sales. Some downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement and priced their purchases, but overall market transactions were sluggish, and spot premiums continued to decline.

Social Inventory: On March 14, LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 mt to 159,500 mt, a decline of 0.51%. According to SMM, as of March 13, total zinc ingot inventory across seven regions monitored by SMM stood at 135,900 mt, an increase of 1,900 mt from March 6 and 100 mt from March 10, indicating a rise in domestic inventory.

Zinc Price Forecast: Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a four-day winning streak, with its daily candlestick center moving upward and support formed by various moving averages below. The low operation of the US dollar index provided support for base metal prices, while the decline in US consumer confidence in March caused LME zinc to jump initially and then pull back. Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, but the MACD bullish column expanded. On the macro side, domestic consumption policies provided a boost. Fundamentals side, expectations for production cuts at overseas smelters supported zinc prices, which are expected to fluctuate at highs.